摘要:经济是税收的源泉，没有经济，就没有税收；同样，没有税收，也就没有正常的经济活动。税收与经济的关系可以概括为：经济决定税收，税收影响经济。近年来，随着西部大开发战略的实施和中国-东盟自由贸易区的建立，云南省抓住这个重大的战略机遇，大力发展优势产业，使云南省的经济得到了快速的发展。经济是税收的来源，以致税收收入实现了大幅度的增长，但与此同时，有人对云南省的税收增长与经济增长是否协调产生了怀疑。云南省作为西部的一个重大省份，其税收状况及税收增长趋势关系到西部地区经济的发展，也关系到全国经济的均衡发展。因此，对云南省税收与经济增长的研究十分重要。本文在回顾有关税收与经济增长关系文献的基础上,运用拉弗曲线从理论上解释了税收与经济的关系，并借助云南省1995—2010年的年度统计数据，运用税收弹性分析和回归分析的方法对云南省的税收与经济增长进行了实证研究，其结论是：云南省税收收入与GDP具有较强的正相关性，经济增长是税收增长的原因，税收收入与经济的发展基本是协调的，不存在税收超经济增长的现象，但其内部存在着不和谐的因素，认为要通过完善地方税制体系、促进经济发展和增加转移支付、加强征管力度等方面来实现二者的优化。
关键词：拉弗曲线；地方税收；经济增长；税收弹性；线性回归
Abstract:The economy is a source of tax revenue, there is no economy, no taxation; the same, there is no taxation, no normal economic activities. The relationship between tax and the economy can be summed up as, economy decision taxes, tax affect the economy. In recent years, with the implementation of western development strategy, and establishment of the China - ASEAN Free Trade Area, Yunnan Province has seized the major strategic opportunity to develop competitive industries, and the economy of Yunnan Province has been a rapid development. The economy is a source of tax revenue, so tax revenues achieve substantial growth, but at the same time, some people bring a doubt whether the Yunnan Province tax and economic growth are coordination. Yunnan Province is a major province in the western, its tax status and tax growth trends related to the economic development of the western region, also related to the balanced development of the national economy. Therefore, researching on Yunnan Province taxes and economic growth is very important. On the basis of reviewing literatures relevant to the relation of taxation and economic growth, using of the Laffer Curve to explain the relationship between taxation and economy on theory, and with the help of annual statistics of Yunnan Province 1995-2010, the use of the tax elasticity and regression analysis to make an empirical study on taxation and economic growth of Yunnan Province, which concluded that tax revenue and GDP of Yunnan Province have a strong positive correlation, economic growth is the reason of the tax revenue growth, tax revenue and economic development is coordinated, and no existing the phenomenon which is tax growth over economic growth, but their internal have discord factors, and it is considering that by perfecting the local tax system, promoting economic development and increasing transfer payments, and strengthening the collection and management of tax etc. to achieve the optimization of both.
Keywords: Laffer Curve; Local Taxes; Economic Growth; Tax Elasticity; Linear Regression
