摘 要:2005年7月21日起，我国开始实行参考一篮子货币的有管理的浮动汇率制度，自此人民币开始走上了升值之路。由于汇率是各国之间贸易结算的价格，汇率变动对一国出口的影响至关重要。人民币的升值对我国的纺织服装的出口具有何种影响，学术界对此观点不一。本文将针对人民币汇率波动对我国纺织业的影响进行分析。首先将阐述2005年以来人民币汇率改革的几个阶段，描述人民币汇率的波动特征，并将现在的中国纺织品服装进出口情况进行概括，将其与人民币汇率波动的特征进行对应和比较，发现汇率的波动与纺织品服装出口额之间具有很大的联系。其次，运用弹性分析法对人民币汇率波动对贸易收支的影响进行理论分析，并且具体分析人民币汇率波动对中国纺织业的具体正负两方面的影响。同时，运用时间序列模型对2005年至2012年的人民币实际汇率和中国纺织品服装出口额进行计量分析，研究结果认为人民币升值对中国纺织品服装出口具有促进作用。针对结果，本文对中国的纺织企业提出短期规避汇率风险、长期利用人民币升值调整发展战略的建议。
关键词：人民币汇率；纺织行业；影响
Abstract:July 21, 2005, our country begins to implement reference to a basket of currencies managed floating exchange rate system. Since then, RMB started on the path of appreciation. Due to exchange rate is settlement price between countries, exchange rate movements crucial influence on a country’s exports. What effect does the appreciation of RMB have on our country’s textile and apparel exports? The academic circles have different views about this. This article will analyze the RMB exchange rate fluctuations impact on China’s textile industry. First of all, we will expound several stages of the RMB exchange rate reform since 2005, describe the characteristics of RMB exchange rate fluctuations, and summarize import and export situation of Chinese textile and clothing. Throuth comparison between the characteristics of RMB exchange rate volatility and the exports of Chinese textile clothing, we found that there is a great relationship between the exchange rate fluctuations and textile clothing exports. Secondly, based on elasticity approach, we did theoretical analysis ahout the RMB exchange rate fluctuations’ influence on trade balance. Then, we expound the positive and negative aspect of the RMBexchange rate volatility on China’s textile industry. What’s more, we do metrological analysis about RMB real exchange rate and Chinese textile clothing export from 2005 to 2012 by using time series model. And we found that the appreciation of RMB has a promoting effect on the export of Chinese textile clothing in the long term. At last, we suggest that Chinese textile corporation should avoid exchange rate risk in the short term and take the opportunity on the appreciation of RMB to adjust the development strategy in the long term.
Keywords: RMB exchange rate; textile; effect
