人民币跨境流通对国际收支统计影响分析.doc

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摘要:长久以来,跨境流通的人民币脱离银行体系监管,从而对国际收支统计产生很大误差。主要是边境贸易中使用人民币结算和个人携现钞出入境形成的购买力对国际收支经常项目下的贸易、旅游及转移支付等项目产生影响,这还不包括地下金融等灰色数额。随着人民币贸易结算试点的扩容,边贸企业使用人民币结算逐渐纳入到银行体系之中来,从而使得这部分资金纳入国际收支统计成为可能。将人民币跨境流通纳入国际收支统计范畴,有助于科学地分析我国国际收支平衡问题、完善我国外汇管理体制,也是推进人民币国际化的重要步骤。本文通过估算人民币跨境流通的规模及构成分析其对于国际收支平衡表的各项目产生的影响,再结合目前政策讨论如何将庞大的跨境流通的人民币纳入国际收支统计。

关键词:跨境流通人民币,国际收支,统计漏出

 

Abstract:For a long time, cross-border circulation of RMB is beyond the supervision of the banking system, thus have a huge effect of balance of payments statistics. Border trade is mainly used to carry cash in RMB immigration settlement and the formation of individual purchasing power parity under the current account of trade, tourism and the impact of transfer payments and other projects, not including the amount of underground financial and other gray deals . With the expansion of RMB Trade Settlements, the border trade settlement in RMB business gradually being integrated into the banking system to, which makes this part of the funds into the international balance of payments statistics is possible. Cross-border circulation of the RMB into the international balance of payments statistics categories, may help scientific analysis of China's international balance of payments problems, improve foreign exchange management system, to promote the internationalization of RMB is an important step. This cross-border circulation by estimating the size of the RMB and composition of its balance of payments for the impact of each project, combined with the current policy discussion on how an enormous amount of cross-border circulation of RMB into the international balance of payments statistics.

Key Words:  Cross-border circulation of RMB,  the international balance of payments,  statistical leakage