摘要:随着世界经济的持续发展，各国人民的生活水平不断得到提高，作为居民主要肉类消费品的猪肉在世界消费领域与肉类生产领域中逐渐占有重要地位。作为猪肉生产大国，猪肉贸易的发展在我国畜牧业发展中起着不可替代的作用。然而，作为世界第一的猪肉生产大国，我国的猪肉贸易在世界猪肉贸易中却仅占极小的份额。2012年，我国猪肉产量5335万吨，出口额3亿美元，占我国农产品出口的0.47%，占世界猪肉出口的1.06%，这一比例与我国猪肉生产大国的地位极不相符。伴随着经济全球化和我国对外贸易的进一步发展，猪肉贸易在国际贸易中逐渐受到高度重视，在这样的国际背景下，研究我国猪肉行业贸易的发展对改善我国出口结构、提高我国猪肉产品的国际竞争力具有重要意义。
本文首先研究我国猪肉生产与出口贸易的现状，并通过分析我国猪肉的国际市场占有率、显示比较优势指数以及贸易竞争力指数，发现当前我国的猪肉贸易竞争力与世界猪肉出口大国还存在一定差距，我国猪肉产品在国际猪肉市场中仍然有很大的发展潜力。接着以我国猪肉出口量占世界猪肉出口量的份额为被解释变量，选取世界猪肉平均出口价格、我国历年猪肉生产量、我国玉米的生产价格、历年人民币汇率、SPS措施的影响、我国主要猪肉出口市场——香港人均国民生产总值六个变量作为解释变量构建计量模型，模型的回归结果表明影响我国猪肉出口贸易的主要因素为：世界猪肉出口价格、我国猪肉生产量、玉米生产价格和SPS措施。在此基础上提出增强我国猪肉国际竞争力和促进我国猪肉贸易健康发展的政策建议。
关键词：猪肉贸易；竞争力；影响因素；政策建议
ABSTRACT:With the development of world economy, our living standard has been greatly improved, which make pork occupies an important position in meat consumption and production field. As an important pork producer, the development of pork trade plays an irreplaceable role in the development of animal husbandry of our country. However, as the greatest production country of pork, China's pork trade in world trade of pork only accounts for a small share. In 2012, China's pork production is 5335 million tons, exports to 3 million dollars, accounting for 0.47% of China's agricultural exports, and 1.06% of the world's pork exports, which is not consistent with China's pork production status. With the further development of economic globalization and China's foreign trade, pork trade is increasingly attached great importance to international trade. In such international background, the research is of great significance in improving China's export structure and promoting the international competitiveness of pork products in China.
Based on the research of China's pork international market share, revealed comparative advantage index and trade competitive index, we found that the current pork trade competitiveness of our country also has disparity with the world's largest pork exporters, but the overall competitiveness of our country is rising, China’s pork products has great potential in the international pork market. This research used the account of China’s pork exports in the world's pork exports as the explained variable, selected the average export price of pork, China's pork production, corn price, RMB exchange rate, the influence of SPS measures and the GNP of Hong Kong as explanatory variables to construct OLS model. In the end, the research concluded that the average export price of pork, China's pork production, corn price, and the influence of SPS measures are the main factors affecting China's pork trade. The research combined the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis put forward policy suggestions to promote the pork trade of China.
Key words: Pork trade; Competitiveness; Factors; Policy suggestions
