摘 要:自2005 年 7 月 21 日起人民币汇率进行全面改革，我国开始实行以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度，汇率变动对我国进出口贸易的发展具有重要影响。本文首先从理论和传导机制两方面分析汇率变动对进出口贸易影响。其次利用计量经济模型对汇率变动对中国进出口影响进行实证分析。实证结果表明，中国进出口贸易与人民币汇率之间存在长期的稳定的动态均衡关系；人民币汇率升值1%，将使出口减少8.84%，说明人民币汇率变动对中国出口影响较大；但人民币升值1%，将使进口减少8.69%，与经济理论相矛盾，说明人民币汇率变动没有反映国际市场商品需求的变化；Granger因果检验表明，中国出口与人民币汇率变动存在双向的Granger因果关系，说明中国商品出口和人民币汇率变动呈相反方向变动，互为原因。但中国商品进口与人民币汇率变动不存在双向的Granger因果关系。最后根据分析结果提出合理化的政策建议和对策。
关键词：人民币汇率 变动 实证
ABSTRACT:Since July 21, 2005 RMB exchange rate reform, China began to implement based on market supply and demand, with reference to a basket of currencies, a managed floating exchange rate system, exchange rate changes on China's foreign trade development has an important influence. Firstly, this paper will analyze the impact of exchange rate movements on import and export trade from the theory and the transmission mechanism two aspects. Second, use the econometric models to do the empirical analysis on the exchange rate movements impact China’s import and export. The empirical results show that the long-term stability of the dynamic equilibrium relationship exist between the China’s import and export trade and the RMB exchange rate. The 1% appreciation of the RMB exchange rate will make exports fell 8.84%, indicating that the changes of RMB exchange rate has a greater impact on China’s exports; The 1% appreciation of the RMB exchange rate will make imports fell 8.69%, in contradiction with economic theory, indicating that the RMB exchange rate does not reflect the international changes in market demand for commodities; Granger causality test showed that there is a bidirectional Granger causality exist between Chinese exports and the RMB exchange rate movements, indicating that China's merchandise exports changes in opposite directions with the RMB exchange rate movements, and they are the causes for each other. However, imports from China and the RMB exchange rate does not exist a two-way Granger causality. Finally, put forward policy recommendations and rationalization measures according to results of the analysis.
Keywords：RMB exchange rate；Fluctuations；Empirical analysis
