摘要:快速消费品行业不断发展，商家之间的竞争异常激烈。为了占取市场上的有利地位，提升市场占有率，商家纷纷采取各种销售促进方式吸引消费者。在商超里，随处可见买一送一、打折、有买有送、免费品尝等促销手段。销售促进手段的使用面临同质化和盲目性问题。商家所采用的销售促进手段对消费者的购买行为会造成怎样的影响，能否达到商家预期的目标，都是商家现今面临的难题。
本文于2013年5月14日至5月23日在永辉超市三峡广场店收集了消费者的购买数据，共搜集了266个观测值。对数据进行整理后，基于麦克法登教授开发的Multinomial Logit (MNL) 模型运用SPSS软件的MNL回归分析对搜集到的观测数据进行分析，得到以不同销售促进手段作为自变量的相关估计参数，最后得出消费者选择观测产品的概率，用来预测消费者在销售促进手段的影响下选择产品的行为。从而为商家在如何选择销售促进手段、如何制定销售促进组合策略方面提供一些建议。
关键词：市场营销 销售促进 效果评估 快消品 Multinomial Logit模型
ABSTRACT:With the development of the fast moving consumer goods industry, the competition with the business has been fierce. The business use kinds of ways of sales promotion to attract consumers buying products in order to get advantageous position in the market and increase market share. In the supermarket, we can find sales promotion anywhere and anytime, like “buy one get one free”, “have a discount”, “try for free”, which shows the usage of sales promotion is homogeneous and blind. The business need to solve many problems that the sales promotion taking by the business will cause what kind of influence to purchasing behavior of consumers and if this sales promotion can reach goals of the business.
This thesis makes an analysis of 266 consuming date coming from Yong Hui supermarket in Sanxia Square during 14, May to 23, May by Professor MacFadden’s Multinomial Logistic Model in SPSS software through which we can get a series of parameters as arguments of different ways of sales promotion, then get probability of consumers choosing products we observes to predict the behavior that consumers choose products on the influence of kinds of sales promotion. This thesis can provide some suggestions with the business about choosing sales promotion and making multiple strategies of sales promotion.
Keywords：Marketing; Sales promotion; Evaluations; Fast Moving Consumer Goods Multinomial Logit Model
