南京的房价与居民收入比研究.doc

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摘  要:研究房价与居民收入之间的关系对改善民生、促进社会稳定具有十分重要的意义。本文在整理和梳理房价收入比的相关文献的基础上,对房价收入比的起源、定义、计算、合理取值范围以及应用等方面作了全面分析。论文还以南京为例,对其房价收入比进行了计算与分析。结果表明:⑴南京市2010年的单位面积房价较2009年上涨了48.84%,2010年处于合理房价收入比范围内的家庭数从2003年到2009年的60%减少到25.6%。⑵房价并没有因调控政策的出台而受到抑制,房价的上涨加重了居民的购房负担。⑶通过计算不同收入阶层在不同面积住宅下的房价收入比,能较好地发现各收入阶层在住房支付能力上的差异,从而为解决各收入阶层的住房问题提供参考依据。⑷波动法和基准法的结果都显示2001年到2009年南京房地产市场不存在泡沫。

关键词:房价收入比 南京 泡沫 

 

Abstract: Study on the relationship between house price and income is of great significance for it can improve people's livelihood and promote social stability. This thesis made a comprehensive analysis on the origin, definition, calculation, rational range and application of house price to income ratio based on sorting literatures about housing price to income ratio. Through empirical analysis of Nanjing, this thesis found that (1) House price per unit area increased by 48.84% in 2010 compared with 2009 and the ratio of households whose house price to income ratio were within the rational range reduced to 25.6% in 2010, while there were a ratio of 60% from 2003 to 2009. (2) The implement of policies aiming to control the rise of house prices did a poor performance and more and more families could not afford the high house prices. (3) It is better for us to discover problems in all income groups by calculating the house price to income ratio of different income class with houses of different areas. Thus, we could provide a reference to solve the housing problems of different income class. (4) The fluctuation method and reference method both shown that there was no bubble in the real estate market of Nanjing from 2001 to 2009.

Key words: house price to income ratio; Nanjing; bubble