摘要:随着现在市场竞争的日益激烈，破产和倒闭频频出现在经济领域中，基于此背景，对企业财务危机的研究在世界范围内日趋广泛地展开。本文在国内外财务危机研究现状的基础之上，界定了财务预警的内涵，分析了财务预警的功能，包括财务监测功能、财务判断功能、财务诊疗功能、辅助决议功能和财务保健功能，详细介绍了Z分数和F分数财务预警模型的概念和特点。以上海超日为实例，通过Z分数和F分数财务预警模型对其进行了财务危机的识别，发现该公司有很大的破产可能，对该公司财务危机的成因分析发现其盈利能力低、短期偿债能力下降、流动负债大幅度增加、营运能力下降和生产规模扩张过快。最后针对该公司财务危机的成因，提出了财务危机治理对策。主要是完善销售策略，降低成本，增加营业利润；保持适度的流动负债；加强现金流量管理；催收应收账款。
关键词 财务预警；Z分数；F分数；财务危机
Abstract:With increasingly fierce competition in the market, bankruptcy and fail have become very common conditions appeared frequently in the economic field, based on this background, the worldwide financial crisis is becoming more widely deployed. The paper briefly introduce the research background, significance and research status, followed by a brief description of the meaning of the Financial Early Warning, analysis functions of the financial early warning including financial monitoring function, financial judgment function, financial diagnosis decision and financial health care function, and introduce the concepts and features of the Z-scores and F scores of Financial Distress Modeling. Taking Shanghai Chaori as an example, practices the Z-score and F score financial early warning model, has found this company maybe bankruptcy. Analyze the causes of the financial crisis. The low profitability, short-term debt paying ability drops, current liabilities have risen considerably, operation ability and scale of production expanded fast are the causes of this company’s financial crisis. The financial crisis countermeasures mainly include improving the sales strategy and reducing costs to increase operating profit ;maintaining moderate amount of current liabilities; strengthening cash flow management ; collecting of accounts receivable.
Keywords Financial early warning Z-scores F scores Financial crisis
