摘要：开放的今天，经济全球化大潮进一步纵深发展。其中，世界各国也在选择不同的汇率制度以跟进世界经济发展。而作为世界第二大经济体的中国，其人民币汇率及其汇率制度的选择俨然成为国内外关注的焦点。为了保证中国在世界金融舞台的竞争力和持续发展，如何选择适合我国的汇率制度便成为亟待解决的问题。因此，本文通过应用计量经济学平稳性的单位根检验及协整理论模型，分析出1982-2011年间影响人民币汇率制度选择的主要因素，再根据实证分析的结果提出相应的对策，以求为我国选择合适的汇率制度提供一些实证依据。
关键字 人民币汇率，汇率制度，单位根检验，协整理论
ABSTRACT：The world is open,and the tide of economic globalization further development in depth. Among them, the world is in the choice of different exchange rate system to follow up on the world economy development. As the world's second largest economy of China, the RMB exchange rate and exchange rate regime choice has become the focus of attention at home and abroad. In order to ensure that China's competitiveness and sustainable development in the world's financial stage, how to choose the suitable for China's exchange rate system has become a problem to be solved. Therefore, in this paper, by applying econometric stationarity of unit root test and cointegration theory model, analysis the influence of RMB exchange rate regime choice between 1982 and 2011, the main factors and put forward the corresponding countermeasures according to the result of empirical analysis, to provide some empirical basis to choose the appropriate exchange rate system in China.
Key Words:The Exchange Rate of RMB,Exchange Rate Regime, Unit Root Test,Co-integration theory
